April 2008 Archives
By Michael Clarke (Director, RUSI)
The United States and Britain should not be so downhearted about the present strategic malaise in which they both now find themselves. True, it is mainly their own fault and it will be for future historians to allocate blame, or pity, as events in the Middle East, South Asia, or even within NATO, play themselves out. But strategic malaise is a normal condition for powers at the apex of a dominant civilisation; lesser powers and revisionist powers are the ones who have clear strategies.
One of the most daunting tasks awaiting the next president will be setting a new agenda for the war on terror. Seven years after the events of 9/11 – and after two wars and billions of dollars spent on improving homeland security - the war on terror is adrift. While al-Qaeda has been denied a sanctuary in Afghanistan, it is now multiplying as a kind of “franchise terrorism” across the globe. It has also found a significant base in Iraq and has made denying America a victory there the centrepiece of its strategy. Worse still, the Bush Administration’s handling of the war on terror has left serious doubts on both sides of the Atlantic about whether this war is intellectually or morally sustainable. In the eyes of many European observers, the war on terror has driven the U.S. and European Union further apart, rather than providing them with a common agenda for action.
Back in the days of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, there were a flurry of news stories and columns -- including one by me for Newsweek International -- about how the 2008 presidential campaign was improving America's image abroad. The competitiveness of the race, the diversity of the candidates, and the fact that none of these people were named George W. Bush triggered an unprecedented degree of interest abroad. As I wrote in January: "From an international perspective, the cream is rising to the top. The three candidates who would generate the most excitement outside the United States are Clinton, Obama, and McCain. The probability of two of them securing their parties' nominations is relatively high right now." A few months later, the cream is starting to curdle. The pressures of the campaign trail appear to be triggering statements that will erode America's soft power.
The great challenge for the next American president will be to rebuild global institutions – the United Nations, security alliances, and multilateral mechanisms reorganized to tackle 21 st century problems. In this great endeavor, the United States has at least one indispensable partner, and that is Europe. The time is now to begin planning the agenda together.