Tag Archives: climate change

How the ice ages ended (Nature)

by Cather­ine Zan­donella, Office of the Dean for Research

Antarctica. Photo credit: Harley D. Nygren, NOAA

Antarc­tica. Photo credit: Harley D. Nygren, NOAA

A study of sed­i­ment cores col­lected from the deep ocean sup­ports a new expla­na­tion for how glac­ier melt­ing at the end of the ice ages led to the release of car­bon diox­ide from the ocean.

The study pub­lished in Nature sug­gests that melt­ing glac­i­ers in the north­ern hemi­sphere caused a dis­rup­tion of deep ocean cur­rents, lead­ing to the release of trapped car­bon diox­ide from the South­ern Ocean around Antarctica.

Under­stand­ing what hap­pened when pre­vi­ous glac­i­ers melted could help cli­mate researchers make accu­rate pre­dic­tions about future global tem­per­a­ture increases and their effects on the planet.

The evi­dence is strong that ice ages are dri­ven by peri­odic changes in the amount of sun­light reach­ing the poles due to cyclic changes in Earth’s rota­tion and orbit. Yet sci­en­tists have been puz­zled by evi­dence that although the tim­ing of ice ages are best explained by changes in sun­light in the north­ern part of the globe, the warm­ing at the end of ice ages occurred first in the south­ern hemi­sphere, with a rise in car­bon diox­ide lev­els appear­ing to be cued from the south.

The new study sug­gests that changes in ocean cur­rents, con­nect­ing the north to the south through the deep ocean, were to blame.

As glaciers melted in the northern reaches of the globe (far upper left), the influx of freshwater, which is naturally less dense than salt-laden ocean water, reduced the normally strong sinking of water in that region. This allowed silicate-rich deep water to rise upward into the shallower ocean waters (upward blue arrows), stimulating the production of opal by diatoms, while warm surface water mixed downward (red arrows) into the southern-sourced deep water. The rising silicate-rich water drew dense cold water from near Antarctica, yielding a cycle of water movement (in yellow). The new circulation pattern caused the carbon dioxide stored in the deep water to be released to the atmosphere near Antarctica (far upper right). Image source: Daniel Sigman.

As glac­i­ers melted in the north­ern reaches of the globe (far upper left), the influx of fresh­wa­ter, which is nat­u­rally less dense than salt-laden ocean water, caused a reduc­tion in the nor­mally strong sink­ing of water in that region. This allowed silicate-rich deep water to rise upward into the shal­lower ocean waters (upward blue arrows), stim­u­lat­ing the pro­duc­tion of opal by diatoms, while warm sur­face water mixed down­ward (red arrows) into the southern-sourced deep water. The ris­ing silicate-rich water drew dense cold water from near Antarc­tica, yield­ing a cycle of water move­ment (in yel­low). The new cir­cu­la­tion pat­tern caused car­bon diox­ide stored in the deep water to be released to the atmos­phere near Antarc­tica (far upper right). Image source: Daniel Sigman.

Part of this story was sug­gested more than a decade ago and is already accepted by many cli­mate sci­en­tists: As glac­i­ers in the north started melt­ing, the influx of fresh water diluted the salty waters that today flow to the north from the trop­ics as an exten­sion of the Gulf Stream. Nor­mally, these salty waters become cool and sink into the deep ocean, form­ing cold and dense water that flows south­ward, and allow­ing more salty trop­i­cal water to take its place in a sort of ocean con­veyor belt. But the influx of fresh water due to melt­ing glac­i­ers stalled the con­veyor belt.

So how did this lead to changes in the south­ern hemisphere?

The new research sug­gests that the shut­down in north­ern sink­ing water allowed southern-sourced water to fill up the deep Atlantic, set­ting up a new ocean cir­cu­la­tion pat­tern. This new cir­cu­la­tion pat­tern brought deep-sea water, which was rich in car­bon diox­ide due to sunken dead marine algae, to the sur­face near Antarc­tica, where the gas escaped into the atmos­phere and acted to drive global warm­ing.  (See diagram.)

The researchers included inves­ti­ga­tors from ETH Zürich, Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity, the Uni­ver­sity of Miami, the Uni­ver­sity of British Colum­bia, and the Uni­ver­sity of Bre­men and the Alfred Wegener Insti­tute in Ger­many. The Prince­ton effort was led by Daniel Sig­man, the Dusen­bury Pro­fes­sor of Geo­log­i­cal and Geo­phys­i­cal Sciences.

The team tracked these his­toric move­ments of water through the study of sed­i­ment cores that are rich in sil­i­con diox­ide, or opal. Tiny marine algae known as diatoms make their cell walls out of opal, and when the organ­isms die, their opal remains sink to the deep sea bed.

The researchers looked at opal in sed­i­ment core sam­ples drilled from deep beneath the ocean floor off the coast of north­west Africa and Antarc­tica. The team found that each period of glac­ier melt­ing, which occurred five times over the last 550 thou­sand years, cor­re­sponded to a spike in the amount of the opal in the sed­i­ment, sig­nal­ing an increase in diatom growth. The tim­ing of the opal spikes pro­vides evi­dence that the deep, opal-rich waters in the south were drawn to the sur­face in response to new melt­wa­ter enter­ing the north­ern ocean.

The mech­a­nism clashes with a pre­vi­ously offered expla­na­tion of why the melt­ing of the north­ern glac­i­ers, or deglacia­tions, leads to the release of ocean car­bon diox­ide from the South­ern Ocean – the the­ory that the melt­ing glac­i­ers in the north increased south­ern hemi­sphere west­erly winds, which in turn caused upwelling of South­ern Ocean deep waters. “While dis­tin­guish­ing between these alter­na­tives is impor­tant,” says Sig­man, “the greater chal­lenge is to test and under­stand a premise that is shared by both of these sce­nar­ios: that ice age con­di­tions around Antarc­tica caused the deep ocean to be slug­gish and rich in car­bon diox­ide. If this was really how the ice age ocean oper­ated, then it calls for us to recon­sider how we expect deep ocean cir­cu­la­tion to respond to mod­ern global warming.”

Read the abstract.

A. N. Meck­ler, D. M. Sig­man, K. A. Gib­son, R. François, A. Martínez-García, S. L. Jac­card, U. Röhl, L. C. Peter­son, R. Tiede­mann & G. H. Haug. 2013. Deglacial pulses of deep-ocean sil­i­cate into the sub­trop­i­cal North Atlantic Ocean. Nature 495 (7442), 495–498. doi:10.1038/nature12006. Pub­lished online 27 March, 2013.

This research used sam­ples pro­vided by the ODP, which is spon­sored by the US National Sci­ence Foun­da­tion (NSF) and par­tic­i­pat­ing coun­tries under the man­age­ment of the Joint Oceano­graphic Insti­tu­tions. XRF data were acquired at the XRF Core Scan­ner Lab at MARUM – Cen­ter for Marine Envi­ron­men­tal Sci­ences, Uni­ver­sity of Bre­men, with sup­port from the DFG-Leibniz Cen­ter for Sur­face Process and Cli­mate Stud­ies at the Uni­ver­sity of Pots­dam. Fur­ther sup­port was pro­vided by the US NSF through grant OCE-1060947 to D.M.S. and by NSERC and CFCAS to R.F.

Forecast is for more snow in polar regions, less for the rest of us (Journal of Climate)

Snowfall_figure

A new cli­mate model pre­dicts declines in snow­fall in the U.S. over the next 70 years. Source: GFDL
Click on image to enlarge.

By Cather­ine Zan­donella, Office of the Dean for Research

A new cli­mate model pre­dicts an increase in snow­fall for the Earth’s polar regions and high­est alti­tudes, but an over­all drop in snow­fall for the globe, as car­bon diox­ide lev­els rise over the next century.

The decline in snow­fall could spell trou­ble for regions such as the west­ern United States that rely on snowmelt as a source of fresh water.

The pro­jec­tions are the result of a new cli­mate model devel­oped at the National Oceanic and Atmos­pheric Admin­is­tra­tion (NOAA) Geo­phys­i­cal Fluid Dynam­ics Lab­o­ra­tory (GFDL) and ana­lyzed by sci­en­tists at GFDL and Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity. The study was pub­lished in the Jour­nal of Climate.

The model indi­cates that the major­ity of the planet would expe­ri­ence less snow­fall as a result of warm­ing due to a dou­bling of atmos­pheric car­bon diox­ide. Obser­va­tions show that atmos­pheric car­bon diox­ide has already increased by 40 per­cent from val­ues in the mid-19th cen­tury, and, given pro­jected trends, could exceed twice those val­ues later this cen­tury. In North Amer­ica, the great­est reduc­tions in snow­fall will occur along the north­east coast, in the moun­tain­ous west, and in the Pacific North­west. Coastal regions from Vir­ginia to Maine, as well as coastal Ore­gon and Wash­ing­ton, will get less than half the amount of snow cur­rently received.

In very cold regions of the globe, how­ever, snow­fall will rise because as air warms it can hold more mois­ture, lead­ing to increased pre­cip­i­ta­tion in the form of snow. The researchers found that regions in and around the Arc­tic and Antarc­tica will get more snow than they now receive.

The high­est moun­tain peaks in the north­west­ern Himalayas, the Andes and the Yukon region will also receive greater amounts of snow­fall after car­bon diox­ide dou­bles. This find­ing clashes with other mod­els which pre­dicted declines in snow­fall for these high-altitude regions. How­ever, the new model’s pre­dic­tion is con­sis­tent with cur­rent snow­fall obser­va­tions in these regions.

The model is an improve­ment over pre­vi­ous mod­els in that it uti­lizes greater detail about the world’s topog­ra­phy – the moun­tains, val­leys and other fea­tures. This new “high-resolution” model is anal­o­gous to hav­ing a high-definition model of the planet’s cli­mate instead of a blurred picture.

The study was con­ducted by Sarah Kap­nick, a post­doc­toral research sci­en­tist in the Pro­gram in Atmos­pheric and Oceanic Sci­ences at Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity and jointly affil­i­ated with NOAA’s Geo­phys­i­cal Fluid Dynam­ics Lab­o­ra­tory in Prince­ton, and Thomas Del­worth, senior phys­i­cal sci­en­tist at GFDL.

Read a plain-language sum­mary of the arti­cle on GFDL’s web site.

Read the abstract.

Cita­tion: Kap­nick, Sarah B. and Thomas L. Del­worth, 2013. Con­trols of Global Snow Under a Changed Cli­mate. Jour­nal of Cli­mate.  Early online release pub­lished Feb. 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12–00528.1

This work was sup­ported by the Coop­er­a­tive Insti­tute for Cli­mate Sci­ence, a col­lab­o­ra­tive insti­tute between Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity and GFDL.

Spring may come earlier to North American forests (Geophysical Research Letters)

By Cather­ine Zan­donella, Office of the Dean for Research

Trees in the con­ti­nen­tal U.S. could send out new spring leaves up to 17 days ear­lier in the com­ing cen­tury than they did before global tem­per­a­tures started to rise, accord­ing to a new study by Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity researchers. These climate-driven changes could lead to changes in the com­po­si­tion of north­east­ern forests and give a boost to their abil­ity to take up car­bon dioxide.

Trees play an impor­tant role in tak­ing up car­bon diox­ide from the atmos­phere, so researchers led by David Med­vigy, assis­tant pro­fes­sor in Princeton’s depart­ment of geo­sciences, wanted to eval­u­ate pre­dic­tions of spring bud­burst — when decid­u­ous trees push out new growth after months of win­ter dor­mancy — from mod­els that pre­dict how car­bon emis­sions will impact global temperatures.

The date of bud­burst affects how much car­bon diox­ide is taken up each year, yet most cli­mate mod­els have used overly sim­plis­tic schemes for rep­re­sent­ing spring bud­burst, mod­el­ing for exam­ple a sin­gle species of tree to rep­re­sent all the trees in a geo­graphic region.

In 2012, the Prince­ton team pub­lished a new model that relied on warm­ing tem­per­a­tures and the wan­ing num­ber of cold days to pre­dict spring bud­burst. The model, which was pub­lished in the Jour­nal of Geo­phys­i­cal Research, proved accu­rate when com­pared to data on actual bud­burst in the north­east­ern United States.

In the cur­rent paper pub­lished online in Geo­phys­i­cal Research Let­ters, Med­vigy and his col­leagues tested the model against a broader set of obser­va­tions col­lected by the USA National Phe­nol­ogy Net­work, a nation-wide tree ecol­ogy mon­i­tor­ing net­work con­sist­ing of fed­eral agen­cies, edu­ca­tional insti­tu­tions and cit­i­zen sci­en­tists. The team incor­po­rated the 2012 model into pre­dic­tions of future bud­burst based on four pos­si­ble cli­mate sce­nar­ios used in plan­ning exer­cises by the Inter­gov­ern­men­tal Panel on Cli­mate Change.

The researchers included Su-Jong Jeong, a post­doc­toral research asso­ciate in Geo­sciences, along with Elena Shevli­akova, a senior cli­mate mod­eler, and Sergey Maly­shev, a pro­fes­sional spe­cial­ist, both in the Depart­ment of Ecol­ogy and Evo­lu­tion­ary Biol­ogy and asso­ci­ated with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmos­pheric Administration’s Geo­phys­i­cal Fluid Dynam­ics Laboratory.

The team esti­mated that, com­pared to the late 20th cen­tury, red maple bud­burst will occur 8 to 40 days ear­lier, depend­ing on the part of the coun­try, by the year 2100. They found that the north­ern parts of the United States will have more pro­nounced changes than the south­ern parts, with the largest changes occur­ring in Maine, New York, Michi­gan, and Wisconsin.

The researchers also eval­u­ated how warm­ing tem­per­a­tures could affect the bud­burst date of dif­fer­ent species of tree. They found that bud­burst shifted to ear­lier in the year in both early-budding trees such as com­mon aspen (Pop­u­lus tremu­loides) and late-budding trees such as red maple (Acer rubrum), but that the effect was greater in the late-budding trees and that over time the dif­fer­ences in bud­ding dates narrowed.

The researchers noted that early bud­burst may give decid­u­ous trees, such as oaks and maples, a com­pet­i­tive advan­tage over ever­green trees such as pines and hem­locks. With decid­u­ous trees grow­ing for longer peri­ods of the year, they may begin to out­strip growth of ever­greens, lead­ing to last­ing changes in for­est make-up.

The researchers fur­ther pre­dicted that warm­ing will trig­ger a speed-up of the spring “green­wave,” or bud­burst that moves from south to north across the con­ti­nent dur­ing the spring.

The find­ing is also inter­est­ing from the stand­point of future changes in spring­time weather, said Med­vigy, because bud­burst causes an abrupt change in how quickly energy, water and pol­lu­tants are exchanged between the land and the atmos­phere. Once the leaves come out, energy from the sun is increas­ingly used to evap­o­rate water from the leaves rather than to heat up the sur­face. This can lead to changes in daily tem­per­a­ture ranges, sur­face humid­ity, stream­flow, and even nutri­ent loss from ecosys­tems, accord­ing to Medvigy.

Read the abstract.

Cita­tion:

Jeong, Su-Jong, David Med­vigy, Elena Shevli­akova, and Sergey Maly­shev. 2013. Pre­dict­ing changes in tem­per­ate for­est bud­burst using continental-scale obser­va­tions and mod­els. Geo­phys­i­cal Research Let­ters. Arti­cle first pub­lished online: Jan. 25, 2013. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054431

This research was sup­ported by award NA08OAR4320752 from the National Oceanic and Atmos­pheric Admin­is­tra­tion, U.S. Depart­ment of Commerce.

Gypsy moth caterpillar takes bite out of forest carbon storage (Environmental Research Letters)

Forests are impor­tant car­bon diox­ide stor­age mech­a­nisms, but a vora­cious leaf-eating cater­pil­lar is cut­ting into the trees’ capac­ity to remove the green­house gas from the atmos­phere, accord­ing to new research by sci­en­tists at Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity, Rut­gers Uni­ver­sity and the United States For­est Service.

The gypsy moth cater­pil­lar, wide­spread in the north­east­ern United States, can wreak dev­as­ta­tion on forests as it devours the leaves of oak, pine, and other tree species. The new research found that this defo­li­a­tion has a sig­nif­i­cant detri­men­tal effect on the ecosystem’s capac­ity to act as a car­bon sink.

The study found that an oak-pine for­est in the New Jer­sey pinelands hit by the gypsy moth every five years would store about one-third less of the above-ground car­bon as an unharmed sim­i­lar for­est, accord­ing to David Med­vigy, assis­tant pro­fes­sor of geo­sciences at Prince­ton University.

The research was con­ducted by Med­vigy and Karina Schäfer, assis­tant pro­fes­sor of ecosys­tem ecol­ogy at Rut­gers Uni­ver­sity as well as researchers from the US For­est Ser­vice: Ken­neth Clark of the Silas Lit­tle Exper­i­men­tal For­est in New Jer­sey and Nicholas Skowron­ski of the North­ern Research Sta­tion in West Virginia.

The research was pub­lished in the jour­nal Envi­ron­men­tal Research Let­ters. (Read the open access arti­cle.) A news arti­cle about the study can be found here.

Cita­tion: Med­vigy, D., K. L. Clark, N. S. Skowron­skiand and K. V. R. Schäfer. 2012. Sim­u­lated impacts of insect defo­li­a­tion on for­est car­bon dynam­ics. Env­i­ron. Res. Lett. 7 045703

 

Truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change (Vanderbilt Law Review)

Cli­mate change is unwel­come news, and the best and worst out­comes con­sis­tent with cur­rent sci­ence are very dif­fer­ent, says Prince­ton University’s Robert Socolow, pro­fes­sor of mechan­i­cal and aero­space engi­neer­ing, in a new review arti­cle pub­lished in the Van­der­bilt Law Review.  There are novel ways the envi­ron­men­tal com­mu­nity, in its role as mes­sen­ger, could tell the story about cli­mate change using greater empa­thy and can­dor.  This essay, which was deliv­ered as a keynote address at a sym­po­sium held Feb. 24, 2012 at the Van­der­bilt Law School, addresses new ways to freshen the conversation.

The era of con­scious­ness of cli­mate change began in 1958 when Charles David Keel­ing began the first accu­rate mea­sure­ments of car­bon diox­ide in the atmos­phere. The sea­sonal oscil­la­tions were unex­pected and the annual aver­age has become a new index (the Keel­ing Curve) of global human impact.

Fifty-four years later, cli­mate change nego­ti­a­tions in the United States and inter­na­tion­ally are in paral­y­sis. The cur­rent impasse has lit­tle social value and a “restart” but­ton is needed. Such a but­ton will be found when those already con­cerned about cli­mate change become bet­ter at telling truths first to them­selves and then to the gen­eral pub­lic. One can begin with acknowl­edge­ments that 1) cli­mate change is unwel­come news, a chal­lenge we would rather not have; and 2) the best and worst out­comes con­sis­tent with today’s cli­mate change sci­ence are very dif­fer­ent. More­over, every nom­i­nal energy “solu­tion” to cli­mate change has a dark side and the solution’s pro­po­nents are not the ones to be counted upon to iden­tify what can go wrong.

Accord­ingly, cli­mate change is a prob­lem of risk man­age­ment requir­ing bal­anc­ing the risks of dis­rup­tion from cli­mate change and the risks of dis­rup­tion from mit­i­ga­tion and adap­ta­tion. Both pub­lic and pri­vate insti­tu­tions need to find ways to over­come their reluc­tance to ver­ify whether intended car­bon reduc­tion goals have actu­ally occurred, so that progress can be accu­rately mon­i­tored and learn­ing can occur. Indi­vid­u­als can be helped to become more aware of how their every-day activ­i­ties cre­ate their car­bon foot­print. Pop­u­la­tion must reen­ter the conversation.

There are grounds for opti­mism. Sci­ence has dis­cov­ered threats fairly early. Many help­ful tech­nolo­gies are being devel­oped and deployed. And, our moral com­pass is in work­ing order, insist­ing that we care both for those alive today and for the col­lec­tive future of our species.

Cita­tion: Robert H. Socolow, “Truths We Must Tell Our­selves to Man­age Cli­mate Change.” Van­der­bilt Law Review, Vol. 65, Num­ber 6, pp. 1455–1478.

Read the full arti­cle: http://www.vanderbiltlawreview.org/content/articles/2012/11/Socolow_-65_Vand_L_Rev_1455.pdf

Changes in Greenland ice sheet over space and time (PNAS)

Polar ice sheets are melt­ing and con­tribut­ing to a global rise in sea-level. This study looked at changes in Greenland’s ice sheet from April 2002 to August 2011 and found that active areas of ice loss were con­cen­trated on the south­east­ern and north­west­ern coasts, with ice mass in the cen­ter of Green­land steadily increas­ing over the decade.

Christo­pher Harig and Fred­erik J. Simons. Map­ping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time. Pro­ceed­ings of the National Acad­emy of Sci­ences. Pub­lished online before print Novem­ber 19, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1206785109

Read the abstract.

Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models (Nature Climate Change)

Efforts to pre­dict North Atlantic hur­ri­cane activ­ity should focus on improv­ing the abil­ity of global cli­mate mod­els to cap­ture the processes that con­trol pat­terns of sea sur­face tem­per­a­ture change through bet­ter mod­el­ing of cloud physics, atmos­pheric con­vec­tion, oceanic processes, the role of aerosols, and over­all improve­ments in spa­tial res­o­lu­tion of the mod­els, accord­ing to a new study by Gabriele Vil­lar­ini, a post­doc­toral research asso­ciate in the Depart­ment of Civil and Envi­ron­men­tal Engi­neer­ing at Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity, and Gabriel A. Vec­chi, a sci­en­tist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmos­pheric Administration’s Geo­phys­i­cal Fluid Dynam­ics Lab­o­ra­tory in Princeton.

Vil­lar­ini G. and Vec­chi GA. Twenty-first-century pro­jec­tions of North Atlantic trop­i­cal storms from CMIP5 mod­els, Nature Cli­mate Change
Pub­lished online 13 May 2012

Read a sum­mary of the paper (Geo­phys­i­cal Fluid Dynamic Laboratory)