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May 03, 2005

International News Story: The Canadian Government Could be Defeated by the Opposition?

Canadian politics is experiencing a shakeup more serious than any seen within the last decade or more. National Post journalist Don Martin called the series of events “Canada’s Watergate,? a crisis that can have profound effects on the United States.

Background to the International News Story
The crisis arose when high-level corruption within the federal government was unearthed in 2002 involving allegations of money laundering and kickbacks; this "sponsorship scandal" involved a variety of federal funds (taxpayer dollars) that were improperly and illegally dispensed and allocated between the 1995 Referendum and 2002. The scandal involved a $250 million project, of which Auditor General Sheila Fraser said “an estimated $100 million in commissions in relation to the program went to Liberal-friendly ad agencies for little or no work.” The sponsorship program was designed “to promote unity in the wake of the 1995 referendum in Quebec,” but turned out to be “little more than a vehicle to reward loyal Liberal supporters.” This money was dispersed by the Public Works Department; Auditor General Sheila Fraser released a report on these funding allocations and stated that the Department “broke just about every rule in the book” when it came to awarding these contracts. Fraser determined that “the sponsorship program was designed to generate commissions for private companies, while hiding the source of the funding, rather than providing any benefit for Canadians.” Basically the government wrote cheques to certain Quebec companies though the companies signed no contracts nor performed any work. The scandal is currently being studied by the “Gomery Commission” or “Gomery Inquiry.”

Two examples of alleged misallocation of funds include:
- Jean Brault, the former head of the advertising company Groupaction, “reaped tens of millions of dollars in government contracts under the sponsorship program;” he testified before the Gomery Commission, stating how “millions of dollars – some of it in cash – found its way back to the Quebec wing of the Liberal party to pay expenses incurred during federal election campaigns.”

- "The Globe and Mail on Thursday had an interview with Benoit Corbeil, a high-ranking Liberal organizer who told the national newspaper he received tens of thousands of dollars in cash from one of the advertising firms and funneled the money back into the hands of "fake volunteers" working on the Liberal campaign. Corbeil said most recipients of the cash were Liberal supporters who took unpaid leaves from their positions in ministries to work on the general election in 2000. "I liked to call them fake volunteers," he said."


Effects of the Sponsorship Scandal: Political Deadlock in the House of Commons and Potential Federal Election
The corruption has resulted in a decrease in public confidence in the government, and a political stalemate within the House of Commons. The current administration is a minority liberal government (it's the first minority government in 25 years). The administration is currently trying to pass the federal budget, and if it fails to do so, runs the risk of the opposition calling for a national election since the failure to pass the federal budget is in essence a vote of "no confidence" in the government.

The Progressive Conservative Party Leader, Stephen Harper, has stated publicly that the PCs plan to try to defeat the government in a vote of no confidence or the defeat of the federal budget. Today, Harper stated after a special caucus meeting that he wanted to force an election to decide the matter: “Let's have the vote now and get on with it…. Nobody believed we should prop up this government or support its program. Right now the only people waiting are the government.” Harper stated that the Conservative caucus members “have unanimously agreed they can't continue under the Liberal's ruling minority government;” “I think there is a unanimous view that the Conservative party cannot support the government. We cannot support their programs. We cannot support a government that is mired in these kind of corruption scandals.”

Overall, then, this crisis might result in a federal election in Canada that could, due to the costly mistakes of the liberals leading the country, result in the first conservative government in twelve years.

Whether there is enough support for the survival of Martin’s minority government, or whether the government will be defeated is unclear. Currently, the Liberals and NDP can total 151 votes, behind the Bloc and Conservatives which (aligned) can add up to 153; there are three Independents, but it is unclear which way they will vote. The sponsorship scandal even caused one Liberal caucus member to cross the floor. In the event of a tie, the budget will pass because the Speaker of the House will break the tie (and he is a Liberal). This means that very few people control the fate of the Martin government: “The people who can collectively force him from power are Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, NDP Leader Jack Layton and the three independents: Chuck Cadman, Carolyn Parrish and David Kilgour.”

If 154 MPs vote against the government on a motion of confidence or on the budget, an election would have to be held. Last week, Prime Minister Martin essentially bought the support of the leftist NDP party in the vote over the federal budget by increasing the proposed budget by $4.6 billion to include extra spending for NDP-supported programs. This change cut the original projected surplus of $9 billion in half, and informally created a voting alliance that could allow the Martin government to survive.

Further complicating the situation is the apparent reluctance of the Canadian public to undergo another election, since the previous federal election took place less than a year ago. The polls show that the Canadian public does not want to have another election, instead suggesting that “most voters wanted Paul Martin's minority government to have a chance to prove itself.”

However, the polls show more support for the conservative party than has been estimated in a long time. An Ipsos-Reid opinion poll on Friday April 22nd showed “the Liberals had 30 percent public support compared to 35 percent for the opposition Conservatives.” An April 15th CBC poll showed that an election could result in a minority Tory government. Support for the liberals dropped from the high 30s to the high 20s over the sponsorship scandal.

CBC poll votes:
· Stephen Harper's Conservatives are supported by 33 per cent of Canadians.
· Paul Martin's Liberals, who currently hold a minority government, are the choice of 27 per cent.
· The New Democratic Party under Jack Layton has 24 per cent.
· Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Québécois has 11 per cent support nationally, but that becomes 51 per cent in the province of Quebec.
· The Green Party, led by Jim Harris, is supported by two per cent.


Relevance to the United States and to U.S News Broadcasts

This international news story has huge repercussions for the United States and thus should be included in a national TV news broadcast to inform the American public. Canadian economic and political changes affects American people. First, political instability in Canada can adversely affect the United States economy.

Second, the current administration is not very supportive of American policies, and an election that could bring a conservative minority government into power would be more likely to cooperate with, and constructively interact with the U.S. administration. In particular, a conservative government would move security higher on the federal government’s agenda, an issue that is very important to the United States given the threat of terrorist attacks on American soil. A Conservative government would allocate resources to improve border security, for example.

Third, the two countries rely upon each other for trade and natural resources, and a good working relationship is requisite for the continuation of these good trade relations. In fact, "$1.8 billion in goods and services crosses the Canada-U.S. border every day." The two-way trade in goods and services exceeded $441.5 billion in 2003, "making the U.S.–Canada trading relationship the largest in the world." Though some Americans might see this as an asymmetrical relationship, the United States depends upon Canada to a large degree in certain areas, such as natural resources, and in particular, energy and electricity:

- "Canada is the single largest supplier of energy to the U.S. at more than $41 billion in 2003 – nearly three times as much as Saudi Arabia. Canada supplied the U.S. with 88% of its natural gas imports, and 17% of its oil in 2003 — more than any other country."

- "Canada supplies close to 100% of the United States' electricity imports, and is the major provider of electricity to the Northeastern U.S., including New England and New York, as well as the Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest and California."

During a period in which American dependence upon foreign oil is a very salient issue domestically, it's important to note that Canada, a friendly nation, supplies the U.S. with more crude oil than any other country in the world, including Saudi Arabia.

Thus, although Americans might not realize the importance of the Canadian-US relationship, or the significance of news that take place within Canada, they should be kept abreast with political developments taking place in their neighbour country such as those being described here. In sum, policies in one country cannot help but affect those in the other, and as a result, the American public should be informed about the news taking place in Canada.

How to Cover this Story
The newscast storyline should be organized such that the context, or the relevance and significance to the American public, is clearly defined and explained. As such, the newscast storyline would briefly introduce the issue at hand, move quickly to the "so what" aspect (the relevance of this issue to the American public), before then continuing into more in-depth coverage, analysis, and interviews. That way, the viewer can view the report in the context of knowing and understanding the significance of the issue to Americans.

This is a very complicated and widely scoped issue, therefore the news coverage of this issue could vary depending upon the resources available. The newscast should include a summary of the recent events noted above, such as the stalemate in the House of Commons, the Progressive Conservative Party's recent press release pledging to push for an election if the federal budget is not agree upon, and the like.

Visuals
The newscast could employ visual support, such as displaying the division of the House of Commons along party lines in a pie chart that shows that out of 308 seats, the governing party (the liberals) hold only 132, the Conservatives 99, the Bloq Quebecois 54, the NDP 19, Independents hold 3, and one seat is vacant. The chart would also show the alliances, signifying that the Liberal-NDP alliance totals 151 seats, the Conservative-Bloc alliance 153, resulting in a potential deadlock. One can see that the opposition can form alliances to cause the budget to fail, depending upon how the three Independents vote.

The newscast should also touch on the Gomery Commission, which precipitated the debate over no confidence in the first place. One could include images of the various people interviewed during the Gomery process, alongside important quotes and sound-bytes of things these people have said. Another visual for the newscast could be the televised broadcast of Prime Minister Martin apologizing for the sponsorship scandal on national TV (a very rare event indeed; unlike the US President, who appeals to the public annually in his State of the Union speeches, the last time a Canadian Prime Minister went on TV was over ten years ago). Similarly, a snippet of former Prime Minister Jean Chretien giving testimony before the Gomery Commission can be shown; it is an important event as it highlights the severity of the scandal, because Not since Canada was a mere six years old has a sitting prime minister given testimony before a public inquiry.

Filler images could be video footage of the parliament buildings in Ottawa, taken from archives (to save money). To add a comedic element, one could include one of the many political cartoons that show a satirical view of this issue. Because this is an ongoing issue that is widely covered in Canada, the American newscasting program can rely upon already taped footage or AP/Reuters video footage. Traveling to Ottawa would not necessarily be required, given the volume of taped interviews. On-air interviews could be conducted by the news anchor as well; likely candidates for interviewing would be officials at the Canadian embassy in Washington or at Canadian consulates in other cities; Professors of Canadian Studies in American Universities (since they would probably be better able to explain the significance of these events to the American public than would Canadian experts and professors); and lastly, one could interview a policy expert at CSIS (Center for Strategic International Studies), which has a program that focuses on Canadian issues, the Canadian Project. CSIS is a nonpartisan think tank that will help to ensure editorial balance. However, it would still be wise to interview both politically conservative and liberal pundits to ensure legitimacy and a nuanced coverage of the news item.

This news item would show to the audience the precarious state of the Canadian government and the significant chance that the government could be defeated. It would also emphasize the close relationship between Canada and the United States and the significance of this news item on the U.S.

Posted by clare at May 3, 2005 07:32 PM

Comments

The economic relationship between Canada and the U.S. is not necessarily a "hook" for this scandal, unless you're going to make the argument that the outcome will jeopardize that relationship. Even the question of border security is an iffy connection.

You will also have difficulty relating this story on the basis of timeliness, as the scandal is about events of several years ago and the Gomery report is not due out until December.

Polls and percentages are not enough to draw a readership either, except among the political circles in Ottawa.

So what to do? A story like this may have to stand or fall on the strength of the storytelling. How compelling can you make the scandal to a relatively disinterested public, without scaring them with speculative outcomes? You picked a very challenging story to relate to a U.S. audience. Your strongest "lead" may be your very first sentence.

Posted by: dmliu at May 5, 2005 04:29 PM

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